Judgment Under Pressure

The hardest mistakes do not always look reckless. Sometimes they look intelligent: a famous stock, a fat dividend, a cheap price, a clever hedge, a confident thesis, or a portfolio that worked beautifully in the bull market. This layer is about where experience can still fail: valuation sanity checks, hidden leverage, income traps, beta, and protection. Layer One keeps you alive. Layer Two gives you the method. Layer Three tests your judgment when the answer is not obvious.